Modeling of Changes in Four Urban Capitals Using Up-to-Date Information Systems and Mathematical Graph-Based Simulative Models for Urban Regeneration (Kaunas Case)

There are numbers of various new infill constructions and renovations occurring in many cities annually that based more on bottom-up initiatives by stakeholders rather than top-down initiated plans according to a city master plan. Such modifications urban structure might look small, not very numerous insignificant at the first glance, but even small changes complex system such as can cause significant shifts functioning network. The presented research, developed mathematical graph simulative modeling, including space syntax restricting model it, employing theory four capitals Lars Marcus, offers way analyze how spatial, social, ecological economic Kaunas will change if all currently confirmed publicly announced construction projects implemented. spatial network is seen an integrator enabler interactions between other three capitals. Each represented quantitative data weighted graph: capital perimeters buildings accessible from public space; social number inhabitants; mean values land prices; size green areas their infrastructure. All for modeling capitals, except future prices, was information implemented planned projects. In order predict them, neural tool applied. Considering absolute essence limited local context (e.g., inhabitants, market size, natural geographical conditions, limits densification), idea positive synergy proposed explained this article. simulation models validated using independent open density points interests, etc. results investigation reveal decrease coordination needed.